I cleared Titans in week 1 as they are due to a regression in some key metrics which are mostly driven by luck. They were 6-2 in one-score games last season but are already 0-1 this year.
There is no doubt that the Bills are the best team in the NFL right now. I just think 10 points is a bit too much to give up. I project it closer to 8.5.
On Monday morning, 65% of the action arrived on the Bills, but the line remained at 10. I think a lot of the sharpest money went into Tennessee. Sounds a bit like an overreaction line from Week 1, as much as I love the Bills this season.
The exclusion of Ed Oliver (ankle) is a blow to the Buffalo defense, especially against Derrick Henry, and potentially being without Davis is a blow to the offense.
Mike Vrabel and the Titans should be able to keep this one close enough after a terrible Week 1 performance.
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With Davis out, I expect Crowder’s playing time to increase to around 60% of runs tonight. Crowder saw a healthy 33% goal per route run in his Bills debut against the Rams, and he had a solid 6.3 average target depth.
Given all that, I project Crowder for 4.2 receptions and topping that line 62% of the time.
FanDuel has Crowder passing over 3.5 receptions to +104, as of 6 p.m. ET.
Editor’s note, 5:24 p.m. ET: Gabriel Davis is expected to miss Monday Night Football against the Titans with an ankle injury.
Davis appeared on the injury report on Saturday due to an ankle injury he allegedly sustained in practice last week. We don’t know if he will play in this one.
Still, I like to grab that number now because it will have to dress for this bet to be in play. If it’s out, you get your money back.
If Davis is active, that means he’s closer to 100% than we think. I doubt the Bills would risk playing him if he wasn’t, especially in Week 2. Buffalo has enough weapons in the passing game to survive without Davis for a week.
If Davis is active tonight, we’ll likely see his prop move closer to the 54.5-55.5 range. The depth of the Titans’ cornerbacks could be an issue with Elijah Molden on injured reserve and Kristian Fulton out.
I project Davis for closer to 56.5 assuming he plays.
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